Perhaps unsurprisingly, in the last few months we have been contacted by many organisations asking for help to develop new plans/strategies for their charity or social enterprise. The world has changed dramatically, no one really knows what the future holds and they believe passionately in the importance of their cause and the services they provide. The question they all ask is “how can we make plans when the situation is so volatile and uncertain”?

In a number of our previous blogs we have promoted the idea of a flexible, scenario-based approach to future planning, perhaps using the five step approach developed by McKinsey:

1. Make sure you have a realistic view of your starting position - what are things really like now?

2. Develop scenarios for multiple potential versions of your future.

3. Establish the broad strategic direction for your organisation, without locking in too many costly investments.

4. Identify and implement the actions and investments that are common across multiple likely scenarios.

5. Set trigger points that determine when your organisation will act and at least the principles of what those actions should be.

But how can a small charity or social enterprise set about doing this in practice?

Our approach with many clients has been to start with the question “what have you learned since lockdown”? This might include exploring:

1. What new ways of working have you adopted?

2. Which have worked well and which not?

3. Are they better, worse or different from how you have traditionally delivered your services?

4. Can/should you continue with new ways of working even when social distancing restrictions are lifted?

5. Should that be as well as, or instead of, how you used to deliver services?

6. What investment might you need to make these changes in the medium term?

Then you can start to explore a range of future scenarios. This is not easy to do in abstract, so we have developed a simplified PESTLE approach, inviting clients to discuss how a few critical aspects of the changing environment in which they work might develop into the future (see example below).

The aim is not simply to decide where on scales like these you think your future scenario might end up, but also to explore which dimensions appear to be the most uncertain (i.e. where the greatest risks lie).

If you want to drill down more deeply into some aspects you can adopt a similar approach within any one of the variables, for example to examine the likely prospects for different funding streams (see example below).

Try to limit the number of variables you explore to a manageable number, then focus on those that appear to be the most uncertain and explore whether your activity/service options would change if the scenario changes (and what would trigger you to implement a different approach).

The options that remain broadly unchanged in the most likely scenarios will be those that carry the lowest risk. Equally, you may need to do things that carry a higher risk of needing to change if the scenario changes but you will understand what you would need to do and what would trigger those actions.

Again, try to keep the number of variable manageable; focus effort first on options that you will definitely take forward whatever the future scenario turns out to be and on your contingency plans for a change in scenario. In a volatile and uncertain world, you will almost certainly need to revisit your scenario-based plans more often than you would a traditional business plan - perhaps every 6 months. but it will be worth it to ensure that your organisation survives, continuing to help your beneficiaries through the crisis, and thrives into the future, to make even more impact for the communities you serve.

To explore how we could help your charity or social enterprise develop flexible scenario-based please contact us at julian@almondtreeconsulting.co.uk to arrange free initial discussion.